Methodology

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METHODOLOGY

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Iteration

observing  >  thinking  >  decision  >  action  >  application  >  observing  >  thinking  >  decision  >  action  > application  > observing  >

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3D computer aided, question-assisted brainstorming, so to form the framework for constructing future plans

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2018………………………………………………………………………2030

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Methodology for the Future State Project – Transformational Change

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THE FUTURE STATE

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This will engage the Unit off and on until year 2030. Yes, quite something. Thereby it presents us with extremely complex / multifarious / systemic and dynamic issues – throughout what is the evolution into (morphing toward) the future state (the United Kingdom) within the interconnected, global system. It is no less than a fascinating challenge, given the duration.

As stated above, the iterations requires the application (ongoing) of 3D computer-aided, question-assisted brainstorming.

Thus, identifying and mapping interconnectedness – the influences that hold together structures, and so on.

This provides a rich picture of where we are at a given point.

(The methodology can be applied to any situation / activity system anywhere, even to examples in a state of decay).

For example, we discuss (though not confined to); the implications for law and order, defence / military / intelligence – the means of protecting our most important economic, political and other public relations – if we briefly consider these as they present during the present time,  how will these change, what are they morphing toward, given the perceived form of a completely different future state – the United Kingdom. 2030, and thereafter?

The point being that as we move ahead, where we are at (with a rich picture) will have to change so to accommodate the emergence and application of the completely new. The methodology will assist us in incorporating the emerging technologies (e.g., and especially the Internet of Things / digital city), the novel architectural forms, the social systems (people change when things around them change **) and so on…. (C-I)

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** Though not so simply stated. We adopt the stance that people hold partial perspectives (world views) of the whole; when combined, these perspectives provide multiple partial perspectives and which often contain resistance in various forms. We will discuss this further, in the context of meaning and the collective nature of thought.

Making assessments. A major blindness has been the almost exclusive attention paid to learning particular skills as a way to become effective and successful in the future – as opposed to paying significant attention to the fact that the standards to assess effectiveness in the future will be altogether different from the ones used today. Based on, with regard to historical changes in standards of effectiveness, the procedures that were considered extremely effective in the past are redundant and thus now discarded.

Systemic approaches to managing complexity, of which this is a methodological example, are designed to achieve emergent outcomes because they are intended to contribute to processes of learning.

Artificial Intelligence *  is greatly freeing people, call people ‘worker ants’ if you like, from repetitive jobs and cultivating creative minds, this while posing new challenges to the labour market and education, making human capital investment a key issue to address. Artificial Intelligence – smart technology has for example already penetrated every aspect of manufacturing industry enabling the promotion of customised mass production. Smart technology is very obviously not confined to manufacturing and includes quite literally, everything.

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Basically and as an ideal; the Future State project involves the continual refinement of the knowledge and skills that lead to ‘informed citizenry’ – the ideal being committed individuals, responsible individuals, and collaborative actions that will result in a prosperous and equitable society for present and future generations.

The principles include the development of, but not limited to; lifelong learning, hands-on experiential learning, community-based learning, technology, partnerships, family involvement, and personal responsibility.

Here is a link to how AI is dictating the nature of social process (toward the people-less economy) and will continue at a vastly increasing pace. One issue bound with the resistance to change but not exclusively is; what will be the status of displaced people, and where will this issue be most likely felt in the negative, i.e., where globally there is yet little to no planning or provision (and conversely, where the opposite is very obviously the case). It is worth mentioning this because of the issues (accusations) which abound around the question of who exactly is designing the future, why and who it includes and who discards. The latter is not the only way of conceptualising the issue.

AI

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Change. Complexity & Systems Thinking

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The definition of a system : An assembly of components interconnected as if they have a purpose. Purpose is a way of structuring the complexity of the case study.

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The idea of interconnectedness is a further way of structuring complexity.

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By using influence diagrams, we are searching for interconnection in the form of influence to hold together a structure that resolves some of the complexity.

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By examining the ways of looking for influence connections from the myriad of possibilities such a complex situation as this presents. Beginning with 3D systems maps, modifying these and adapting them to identify the principal interconnections.

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The terms ‘complexity’ and ‘system’ each carry a rich set of meanings.

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Systems thus provides us with a language for talking about other subjects – to contextualise a diverse array of methods at our disposal, creating an opportunity for a greater range of advantageous changes in the ‘real world’ situation.

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System and /or complexity.

To indicate which mode we are in, that is, which of (I) and (II) is in operation :

(I) As something that exists as a property of some thing or situation; and that, therefore, can be discovered, measured and modeled, manipulated, maintained and / or predicted; or

(II) As something we are actually constructing, designing, or experiencing in relationship to some thing, some event, situation, or issue because of the distinctions – or theories – we embody.

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Our examining the conditions for purposeful system design is central. As a consequence the questions we can ask are :

Is X teleological, i.e. , does it exist to serve a purpose?

Does X have a measure of performance? Are expected performances identified and are relevant measurements available, and are they carried out?

Are the clients, the stakeholders of X identified people whose interests and values will be served by the system?

Does X have teleological components that co-produce the expected performance of the system? Do these components have measures of performance that are related to the performance of X? 

Is the system’s environment clearly defined? Is the relationship, the mutual interaction patterns between the system and its environment, defined?

Does X have identified designers who serve the interest and values of the stakeholders? How are these interests and values known to the designers? Who is involved in validating the design?

Does X have a decision-maker? (The client stakeholders, the designers, and the decision-makers may be the same.)

Do the designers intend to change X so as to maximise its value to the client/stakeholder? Do they maintain fidelity between the preferred/ideal design and the operationalised design?

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Research Information, Analysis & Methodology : Notes 

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Addendum I

Secret Intelligence Service
(C-I) Seminar. 06 04 2019
Harrogate.

To discuss the Future State Project and Systems Thinking

Do design thinkers face particular challenges when seeking to intervene to improve value and outcomes in complex adaptive ecosystems such as cities, health and social care, education, energy, food production and distribution, the built and natural environment and development?

Well, in such systems, the root causes of problems and the origins of poor outcomes are often hard to identify and difficult to address due to their nested, interconnected and dynamic nature, as well as the fact that they consist of a diversity of humans, technologies and resources whose actions and effects are not wholly predictable.

When making interventions in complex adaptive systems, it is necessary to identify, engage with and satisfy the needs of multiple stakeholders. A designer seeking to create new value must understand how complex systems adapt and evolve in response to the direct and indirect interactions of all stakeholders, the different goals they have, the diversity of resources they can access and use, the outcomes they prioritise and often, the widely different (and sometimes in conflict) values they possess.

Learning about a problem from only one or two stakeholder groups risks leaving important gaps in understanding, leading to the design of partial interventions and piecemeal solutions based on incomplete evidence. Rather like the parable of the learned blind men touching an elephant, focusing on just one part of a complex system problem only ever produces limited insight (especially if you are at the tail end). Such a narrow perspective is one of the main reasons why technologies and solutions fail to become adopted, or do not achieve the hoped-for scale of implementation.

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Addendum II

Secret Intelligence Service
(C-I) Unit. Seminar. 27 04 2019
Harrogate

Topic : Our understanding of the nature of human – system interactions from the perspective of the theory of complex adaptive systems, including the essence of complexity, emergent properties of system behaviour and deterministic chaos.

Notes :

Human performance, more often than not, constitutes complex adaptive phenomena with emergent properties that exhibit chaotic behaviours.

With regard to what we are doing with the FUTURE STATE PROJECT therefore, we should explore the design and management of organisational / work systems in their entirety – including applications of the concepts of nonlinear dynamics to the study of human physical performance.

So to examine the effectiveness of human-centered design efforts of what is a no less than immense system of systems taking place, we should understand the applications and concepts – the theory of complex adaptive and dynamical systems.

Performance of many contemporary work systems and environments may be sensitive to the initial conditions and may exhibit chaotic system behaviours. Human-centered design of emergent human–system interactions requires application of the theories of nonlinear dynamics and complex adaptive systems.

The success of future human–systems integration efforts requires the fusion of : paradigms, knowledge, design principles, and methodologies of human factors and ergonomics with those of the science of complex adaptive systems as well as modern systems engineering.

Cybernetics.

Human activity systems

Future State Project

(C-I) Unit

 

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Secret Intelligence Service

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Change. Complexity & Systems Thinking

The Future State Project

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